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Welcome to the Better Mortgage Select monthly newsletter – August 2025 edition.

 

Brought to you by Daniel Patton, Michael Zanzini, Lorenzo Podda, and our President, Dave Butler.

   

Next week, we enter the final four months of 2025, and many Canadians are asking the same question: “When will interest rates start to come down again?” The recent economic data releases this month haven’t made that answer very clear—but they do help shape our outlook.

   

INFLATION: Headline Down, But Core Still an Issue

   

Last week’s July inflation report brought some short-term optimism: Headline inflation dropped to 1.7%, down from 1.9% in June. However, it's important to recognize that this drop was, again, mostly driven by the elimination of the carbon tax—a one-time policy move—not broad-based deflation. In fact, the headline number had already hovered around 1.7% back in April and May before temporarily ticking slightly higher in June.

 

The real issue lies with core inflation, which has remained stubbornly sticky around 3%. That’s one of the Bank of Canada’s key measures for determining when it’s safe to cut rates—and it hasn’t shown any meaningful downward momentum for quite some time.

 

Some media outlets and economists interpreted last week’s inflation print as a possible green light for earlier rate cuts. To be candid, we don’t see it that way. While we'd love to see rates come down soon, there is nothing in the latest inflation report that would, on its own, push the Bank of Canada to cut sooner.

   
   

The US Federal Reserve Wildcard

   

However, one important new variable has emerged: The US Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently suggested that the US could begin reducing interest rates as early as September. That opens a door for the Bank of Canada.

 

If the US Fed moves in September, it could force the Bank of Canada’s hand—even if core inflation here hasn’t materially improved. The Canadian central bank may not want to risk a growing rate divergence between the two countries, which could have currency and trade implications.

 

So, if the US Fed does cut in September, our view is that the Bank of Canada could follow with a cut in October—but we do not expect Canada to cut before the US, at least for now. 

   
   

Employment Data: Signs of Strain Beneath the Surface

   

The most recent employment data showed that the unemployment rate held steady at 6.9%, but we also saw job losses—particularly concentrated among young Canadians aged 15 to 24. This lines up with what we’re seeing at ground level. At BM Select, we speak with hundreds of households each month about their finances, income, credit, and housing situations—and the message is consistent: things are tight.

 

You won’t hear us echoing some politician’s statements that Canada’s economy is “strong.” Canadians are being tested right now—especially the younger generation trying to enter or stay in the workforce. The financial pressure is real and hopefully soon, we can see the Government step up and address it, or at the very least, acknowledge it.

   

What’s Next?


As of today, we’re in a holding pattern—and it's likely to stay that way through the next interest rate announcement in September. In total, there are only three more Bank of Canada rate meetings left in 2025:

   
   

Until we see either a meaningful drop in core inflation or a move by the US Fed, we expect the Bank of Canada to hold steady. Any forecasts of imminent cuts based solely on last week’s inflation data feel premature.

 

Bond yields remain in a slow daily uptrend that began in the spring, although the channel looks like it will be tested.  The US Fed’s comments did trigger a brief drop in yields, but it wasn’t significant enough to break the current trend. So far, the market remains steady.

   
   

Bottom Line:

 

While we’d love to join in the excitement about possible earlier rate cuts, the data just doesn’t support it, yet. At BM Select, we believe in keeping you - our clients, informed with facts - not hype. The current environment still, very strongly, suggests that the next move by the Bank of Canada will be a rate cut—but exactly when remains uncertain. All eyes are now on the August inflation numbers (to be released in September) and the US Fed’s next move.

   

In what feels like a throwback to pre-COVID lending cycles, we’re beginning to see the re-emergence of quick closing specials from some Canadian banks—a tool they used frequently in the past to boost end-of-year numbers.

   

Why Now?


Unlike the standard calendar year most of us operate on (January 1 to December 31), the Canadian banking fiscal year runs from November 1st to October 31st. That means banks are now in their final quarter (Q4), and for those whose annual mortgage volumes are lagging, one way to pad their books before the year closes, is to introduce short-term rate specials tied to quick closings.

 

We’ve seen this before—it’s cyclical, and it usually shows up when a lender wants to hit internal targets before their fiscal year-end. These promotions typically don’t carry over into Q1 (which begins November 1st), so the window is tight.

   

What’s on Offer?


One major bank has just recently launched a 30-day quick close special.

Here’s the breakdown:

  • 3.69% on a 3-year fixed – Insured mortgage
    (Insured = purchases with less than 20% down)
  • 3.99% on a 3-year fixed – Conventional mortgage
    (Conventional = 80% loan-to-value or less)

These are exceptionally strong rates, especially when you consider the term and current bond yield trends. But as always, there’s a catch: To qualify, the mortgage must close within 30-days of submission and approval.

   

Why This Matters


These specials aren’t just limited in time—they’re also limited in quantity. Lenders offering them often reserve the right to pull the offer at any time if they hit their volume goals early. That means if you’re interested, waiting could mean missing out.

 

If you're shopping for a home, have a mortgage renewal coming up, or are looking to refinance and want to explore these discounted 3-year fixed options, get in touch with us immediately. We can help determine if your situation qualifies, and if so, we’ll move quickly to secure the rate before its gone.

 

If these rates catch your eye, don’t wait, reach out to us at info@bmselect.ca or call us (905-569-8326) and let’s see if this rate special works for you.

August was a busy month for our team, especially for our Vice President, Daniel Patton. 

 

Daniel, along with our Operations Manager, Lorenzo Podda, were on a live podcast with Rockstar Real Estate co-founder, Tom Karadza, to discuss our BM Select Investor Edge product suite that we will be launching to the public in September.  For those that don’t know, we have been given authorization to offer BM Select-designed and customized mortgage products that cater directly to real estate investors and we’re extremely excited for the official launch next month.

   
   
     
   

Some weekend fun was had as Daniel joined longtime friend and realtor partner, Jared Gardner, at a fantastic community event hosted with RE/MAX. The day was filled with fun, including hot air balloon rides, face painting, and plenty of activities for kids.

 

BM Select and Jared go back many years, and it’s always a pleasure coming together to host events that bring the community closer. The atmosphere was vibrant, and everyone had an amazing time celebrating with neighbors and friends.

   
   
     
   

Then it was off to the National Bank Open, which was a tennis event in Toronto where Daniel, Lorenzo and our President, Dave Butler, enjoyed some quality time with our partners of the event host bank.  As many of you know, BM Select is an exclusive broker partner of National Bank’s Wealth Division, because we work with predominantly high-value clients like you!  The more time we spend with them, the more special products we pitch them - so that you have more ways to get Big Bank approvals!

   
   
     
   

Finally, Daniel finished up the month on the links with our friends at Equitable Bank.  Equitable Bank is one of the premier reverse mortgage lenders in Canada and it’s a mortgage product that we have seen a massive serge in applications for.  Using equity in your home to eliminate your mortgage payment is garnering huge interest, as Canadians over 55-years old look at different ways to plan for retirement.

   
   
   
     
   

Just a friendly reminder to come visit us on our socials, where we put out a ton of videos with tips and information to help you navigate the wild world of mortgages! Check out the links below and give us a follow!

   
   
   
     
   

As always, if you have any questions or want to do some mortgage planning, feel free to reach out to us at: info@bmselect.ca