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Better Mortgage Select Presents: Breaking Interest Rate News - Brought to you by Daniel Patton, Michael Zanzini, Lorenzo Podda, and our President, Dave Butler.

   
   

This morning, the Bank of Canada announced no change to its key interest rate. 

For our clients, this outcome won’t come as a surprise. Since the October rate cut — and reinforced again in our recent newsletters — we’ve been clear that January was highly likely to be a pause, with policy makers needing more time to assess how prior cuts are flowing through the economy. 

   

Today’s decision reflects a central bank that is handcuffed by mixed data: 


  • Inflation: Headline inflation remains above target, and while core inflation is finally easing, it’s still not at a level that gives the Bank confidence to cut further. 

  • Employment: Unemployment has moved back up toward the 7% range, but not decisively enough to force immediate stimulus. 

  • Growth: Economic momentum remains soft but not deteriorating fast enough to justify pushing rates lower today. 

 

In short: Conditions are not weak enough to cut — and not strong enough to hike.

   

Where Rates Stand Today:

   

With today’s hold, we move forward with: 


  • Prime rate: 4.45% 

  • Variable rate mortgages (owner-occupied): 
    Most borrowers continue to sit below 4%, depending on their original discount to Prime.     This means: Adjustable-payment variables = stable payments, and fixed-payment variables = more principal paid with each payment.

  • Fixed Rates: 
    Fixed mortgage pricing remains driven by Canadian bond yields. While yields have moved around recently, we are still operating in a narrow, range-bound environment, with most 5-year fixed rates hovering near the 4% mark and 3-year fixed rates under 4% in a lot of cases. 

 

This is not a volatile rate environment — it’s a waiting one. 

   

Why 2026 Is A "Data Driven" Year:

   

Looking ahead, there are several forces that could influence the next move — but none are imminent enough to force the Bank’s hand today: 

 

  • U.S. policy shifts: A changing Federal Reserve leadership and renewed political pressure to lower U.S. rates could eventually create downward pressure on Canadian yields. 

  • Trade & geopolitics: Ongoing Canada–U.S. trade discussions (and uncertainty around future agreements) will play a role in employment and inflation trends. 

  • Domestic data: Inflation needs to keep cooling, and unemployment needs to rise more meaningfully before further cuts become realistic. 

 

Translation: Rate direction will be determined month-by-month, not forecast-by-forecast. 

   

Key Dates to Watch Before the Next Decision:

   

Between now and the next Bank of Canada meeting, several important data points will shape expectations, here is what we have coming up next month: 

 

  • Friday, February 6: Employment data release 

  • Monday, February 16: Inflation report 

  • Friday February 27: Q4 GDP data release 

 

These releases — not headlines — will dictate what direction the next Bank of Canada Interest rate movement be. 

   

What This Means for You:

   

The playbook hasn’t changed: 

 

  • Variable-rate holders: Stability remains your friend. Stay patient, stay informed, and be ready if fixed rates drift into your target zone. 

  • Upcoming renewals or purchases: This is an ideal time to secure a rate hold and protect against bond-market volatility. 

  • Planning ahead: 2026 is shaping up to be a year where preparation — not reaction — delivers the best outcomes. 

 

As always, our role is to interpret the data, cut through the noise, and give you clear direction — before the rest of the market catches up. 

 

Want a personalized plan for the months ahead? 


Reply to this email with the subject line "2026 Game Plan" and we’ll map out the right strategy based on your mortgage, timeline, and risk tolerance. 


We’ll be watching the data closely — and you’ll hear it from us first. 

   
   
   

Whether you’re a first-time buyer, someone selling a home and buying another, a real estate investor, or just someone who likes to stay informed - we’ve got the webinar for you!! 

 

Register for one, two, three or all four, the choice is yours.  Check out this year’s FREE WEBINAR schedule below and get signed up today! 

 

Wednesday, March 4 - 6:30PM: 
Exclusive First-Time Buyer Webinar 
A step-by-step walkthrough for first-time buyers — covering affordability, mortgage strategy, rate selection, and how to enter the market with confidence in today’s environment. 

 

Wednesday, April 22 - 6:30PM: 
How to Play the 2026 Spring Real Estate Market 
What to expect as the market shifts into peak season, how interest rates and buyer sentiment may impact pricing, and how to position yourself strategically — whether you’re buying, selling, or upgrading. 

 

Wednesday, September 23 - 6:30PM: 
Fully Finance the Addition of Units & Cashflow Your Property 
A complete, practical tutorial on how investors are adding units, increasing rental income, and financing these projects efficiently — including real-world examples and funding structures. 

 

Wednesday, December 9 - 6:30PM: 
2026 Year in Review & What to Plan for in 2027 
Our annual year-end session breaking down what mattered most in 2026 — and how to position your mortgage and financial strategy for the year ahead.

   
   
   
     
   

Just a friendly reminder to come visit us on our socials, where we put out a ton of videos with tips and information to help you navigate the wild world of mortgages! Check out the links below and give us a follow!

   
   
   
     
   

As always, if you have any questions or want to do some mortgage planning, feel free to reach out to us at: