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Welcome to the Better Mortgage Select monthly newsletter – October 2025 edition.

 

Brought to you by Daniel Patton, Michael Zanzini, Lorenzo Podda, and our President, Dave Butler.

   
   

Since the Bank of Canada’s rate cut last month, the bond market has gone unusually quiet.  The 5-year Government of Canada yield (which is where fixed mortgage rates are priced from) has traded in an unusually tight~11–12 bps range, which tells us one thing: the street is waiting on next week’s inflation data to decide whether the next cut lands this month, in December, or slips into the new year.

   
   
   
   

What the market just told us:

   

  • Jobs (surprise) that didn’t stick - Last Friday, employment figures for September came in a touch better than feared with unemployment holding at 7.1% and surprisingly positive job creation numbers.  Logical thinking was that this would push bond yields higher. Instead, the yields popped intraday but then faded hard and closed lower than the previous day. For us, that feels like a tell: the bond market is looking through the jobs print and is laser-focused on inflation next week.
  • Why this matters: When good economic news can’t push yields up, it often means participants expect flat/soft inflation data and are keeping investable funds for a potential Bank of Canada follow-up cut.
   

The two key dates this month:


  • Wednesday, October 22nd – September CPI inflation data gets released: If core inflation measures are flat/softer, it will immediately add pressure for an October cut. However, a hotter-than-expected print likely keeps interest rates held in place until December at the earliest.
  • Wednesday, October 29th – Bank of Canada interest rate decision: With another meeting only six weeks later, the bank can either act now or wait for December without losing optionality. We see it almost as a coin flip, leaning toward a cut if inflation cooperates.

Where mortgage rates sit right now (and the drift we’ve seen):

   

  • Since mid-September, fixed rates have inched lower, consistent with the market pricing in another one or two cuts between now and next spring/summer.
  • It’s becoming increasingly common to see insured mortgage rates (less than 20% down payment) for the 3-year fixed, 5-year fixebd and 5-year variable terms sitting in the high 3’s.
  • Conventional mortgage pricing (≥20% down payment or refinances) has also improved compared to mid-late summer, with 3-year and 5-year fixed terms back in the low-4s and drifting lower.


Big picture: We’re inching toward an environment where the mainstream mortgage terms will all begin with a ‘3’ across the board. That combination of rate optics plus pent-up demand and some seller capitulation is likely to give us the busiest winter in the last four years (*but that’s not saying too much*).


Our base case into year-end:


  • If inflation data comes in tame, a cut in October is very plausible, then almost certainly followed by a pause into the new year to let the economy absorb both fall rate cuts.
  • If CPI runs a little hot, expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates in October, with a December rate cut fully in play.
  • Either path still implies easier policy bias into early 2026, but certainly not a return to COVID-era extremes — we want to think measured, not meteoric.

What to do now (practical, not theoretical):

 

Buying this fall/winter:

 

  • Get a 120-day rate hold now. If rates fall before you close, a float-down will capture the drop; if an unexpected pop, you’re protected.
  • If you were pre-approved over 2-3 months ago, refresh your numbers — purchasing power and payment math have shifted in your favor.

 

On a variable:

 

  • You’ve been playing the game to this point. With last month’s cut behind us and another possible, stay disciplined and let the cycle do the work.
  • Your decision point is less about today’s Prime rate and more about when the fixed rates hit your sweet spot. We’ll flag that turn when bond-market price action confirms it.

 

Renewals in the next 6–12 months:

 

  • Let’s get your gameplan set up ASAP. We don't want you leaving your current low rate early — but let’s update your file and run some scenario’s based on today’s interest rate options, so that mortgage payment changes aren’t a surprise to you.
  • If your file is complex (multiple properties/rentals), well that’s our bread and butter.  Let’s do some portfolio planning and prioritize key dates, ensuring the most optimal results.

 

Refinancing/Restructuring:

 

  • With more interest rate terms showing a “3” in front, the math on debt consolidation and cash-flow tuning keeps improving. If we ran your numbers over 2-3 months ago, it’s worth a quick re-run.

Bottom line:

 

We’re still in a very sensitive data-dependent world — the Bank of Canada is effectively deciding month-to-month at this point, based primarily on inflation, jobs, and GDP. The signal from recent price action is that markets are leaning towards a cut in a couple weeks but waiting for proof. We’ll be analyzing and diving into the CPI inflation data next week and will be ready with our Breaking News update on October 29th.

 

For more information or to speak to one of our experts, REPLY to this email OR write us at: info@bmselect.ca.

   
   

A must-attend event for aspiring or current real estate investors, RockStar Real Estate’s ‘Your Life, Your Terms’ fall conference is expected to host over 1000+ like-minded individuals and is loaded with expert guest speakers, including our very own Dave Butler.  He’ll take the main stage to discuss our new BM Select Investor Edge product suite and why it’s a critical toolkit for investors looking to excel in today’s tougher real estate market.

   
   


Wednesday, October 22 at 6:30PM (EST). If you’re not able to make it to Dave’s appearance this weekend, then definitely do not miss Daniel, Lorenzo and Michael dedicating an entire webinar to our new BM Select Investor Edge product suite.  See more real-life scenarios and examples play out live as we demonstrate how these new custom-designed programs are changing the ballgame for real estate investors in today’s post-Covid era.  We plan to get some Q&As going, followed by our $150 Amazon gift card giveaway, at the end of all of our webinars.

 

You won’t want to miss this one, our second last webinar of 2025!

   
   
   

October is only half done but you wouldn’t guess it based on how busy our mortgage experts have been.


Last week, Daniel Patton hosted the Michael St. Jean Realty team for a fun-filled evening of bowling. The night was packed with laughs, great food, and plenty of drinks, as everyone enjoyed some well-deserved time together outside the office.

   
   
     
   

October kicked off with a bang for Sr. Mortgage Agent, Michael Zanzini, who was featured on two top industry podcasts — The Well Off Podcast, and Real Talk with Gary. Michael dove into in-depth discussions on the real estate market, interest rates, and future forecasts, while also unveiling the BM Select Investor Edge product suite. Both episodes will be out soon, so stay tuned!

   
   
     
   

Daniel Patton had the pleasure of attending the Windsor Real Estate Insider and Social Event, hosted by Milena Simsic. The evening brought together industry professionals, investors, and community leaders for a night filled with networking, great conversations, and shared insights into Windsor’s thriving real estate market.

   
   
     

Michael and the BM Select team had an exciting three days at the Toronto Fall Home Show at the Enercare Centre, connecting with countless attendees and building new relationships.

     

Daniel Patton attended an exclusive event hosted by our friends at Greybrook, featuring Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist at CIBC, as the evening’s special guest speaker.

 

The event provided valuable insights into interest rate trends and the economic outlook for the next 12 months, sparking great conversation and thoughtful discussion among attendees.

     

Michael’s month wrapped up with a presentation at Royal LePage & Our Neighbourhood Realty’s office team meeting, where Michael shared the latest market insights and trends with their agents.

   
     

Daniel met with a valued client and good friend, Devon T., to discuss several upcoming projects and new opportunities on the horizon. Amidst the business talk, the conversation naturally turned to one of their shared passions — the Toronto Blue Jays — and their hopes for a World Series run this season.


Here’s to exciting projects ahead and, hopefully, a championship to celebrate in the next newsletter!

   
   
     
   

Just a friendly reminder to come visit us on our socials, where we put out a ton of videos with tips and information to help you navigate the wild world of mortgages! Check out the links below and give us a follow!

   
   
   
     
   

As always, if you have any questions or want to do some mortgage planning, feel free to reach out to us at: info@bmselect.ca