| |
| |
Better Mortgage Select Presents: Breaking Interest Rate News - Brought to you by Daniel Patton, Michael Zanzini, Lorenzo Podda, and our President, Dave Butler.
| |
| |
| |
| |
The Bank of Canada has announced that it will hold the overnight rate — closing out the year with the key mortgage metric, the prime rate, at 4.45% This decision comes as no surprise to our readers and clients as its completely in line with our interpretation of the October 29th Bank of Canada press conference. At that time, Governor Tiff Macklem, all but signaled that the bank was stepping back to “assess” and would evaluate the coming months of data before considering any further moves. Today’s hold simply confirms what we’ve all been preparing for.
| |
| |
| |
| |
Even though the Central Bank was already planning to pause rate cuts in December, two forces made the bank’s decision for them — both pointing firmly to “no change”: 1. GDP: Better Than Expected… But Missing Key Data Q3 GDP surprised to the upside — but we also know: - Large sections of U.S.-linked data were delayed or incomplete due to the U.S. government shutdown.
- October’s monthly GDP figures also contained major gaps for the same reason.
Even with the foundationally unstable data, nothing in the GDP figures screamed ‘rate cut’. 2. Last Week’s Employment Data Shock Last Friday’s employment release, on the surface, came in far stronger than anyone expected: - Unemployment dropped from 6.9% to 6.5%
- Markets had expected a rise to 7.0%
This was a major surprise for the unemployment figures — but when we dug into the report, it did seem to tell a different story: - Almost all the “job gains” were part-time, not full-time.
- Much of the growth appears seasonal heading into the holidays.
- This does not really reflect a strengthening Canadian job market
Still, traders decided to play the headline with the market reacting violently. The 5-year government yield jumped over 7% intraday, pushing it to the highest levels seen since late summer and eliminating any possible chance of a rate cut for those that were holding out hope. | |
| |
What today's decision means for rates, going into 2026:
With this hold: Variable Rates Almost everyone with a variable-rate mortgage on an owner-occupied home will start 2026 with an interest rate under 4%, with the Bank of Canada prime rate starting the year at its lowest level since 2022 – proving there is some meaningful stability after three years of volatility. Fixed Rates Because of last Friday’s bond-yield spike, we are now expecting the market to price in some higher longer-term fixed rates to start the year. We wouldn’t be surprised to see bank’s raise some of their fixed rates this week or next week by about 0.10%–0.25%, unless yields retreat quickly. This means: - If you are house-hunting → get your 120-day rate hold immediately.
- If you have a renewal coming up → at least secure a rate-hold, even if you plan to take variable.
- If you plan to refinance in early 2026 → Getting a rate-hold now protects you if markets overreact and we see fixed rates push up further.
You lose nothing by getting a rate-lock — but you risk quite a bit by waiting.
| |
| |
| |
| |
Even with the recent bond market volatility, Canada enters 2026 with: - A prime rate that’s not likely moving up any time soon.
- A variable rate environment that is quite predictable in the short-term.
- A fixed-rate environment that — yes — may be a bit bumpy but should stay within a 75-basis point range for the year.
- A Bank of Canada that has openly signalled their strong appetite for ‘waiting and seeing’.
It may not seem like it, but we will be starting the new year off with the most interest rate stability we have seen in Canada since before the Covid-19 pandemic.
| |
| |
| |
| |
As always, your mortgage strategy should be proactive, not reactive. It may make sense for you to start getting ready for the new year – maybe you want us to review your file, maybe you have a renewal coming up or you’re thinking of downsizing or upsizing, simply reply to this email with the subject line: 2026 Planning Then we’ll take it from there. And of course, if you have any questions never hesitate to reach out at info@bmselect.ca.
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
We’re closing out the year with our 5th and final live webinar, and the timing couldn’t be better. Tonight at 6:30pm, we are hosting a special year-end presentation: 2025 Recap + Your Mortgage Game Plan for 2026 This will be one of the most valuable sessions we’ve ever hosted. With the widely-talked-about 2026 mortgage renewal wave approaching — as thousands of Canadians prepare to roll out of their ultra-low 2021/2022 mortgages — the coming year is shaping up to be one of the most important mortgage cycles in over a decade. During this live online session, we’ll break down: • The major economic and mortgage shifts that defined 2025
• How today’s Bank of Canada announcement sets the tone for early 2026
• What the renewal surge means for interest rates, lenders, and product options
• The practical steps you can take now to set yourself up for success in 2026
• Unfiltered insights and real-world strategy from the BM Select experts As always, we’ll wrap up with an open Q&A, then finish with a draw for a $150 Amazon gift card — a timely perk heading into the holiday season. Let’s finish 2025 on the front foot — and get you ready for what’s coming next.
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
Just a friendly reminder to come visit us on our socials, where we put out a ton of videos with tips and information to help you navigate the wild world of mortgages! Check out the links below and give us a follow! | |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
As always, if you have any questions or want to do some mortgage planning, feel free to reach out to us at: | |
| |
_(003).png){kind=spacer}