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Welcome everyone to our monthly Better Mortgage Select newsletter - this is our February 2024 edition.

 

Brought to you by Daniel Patton, Michael Zanzini and Lorenzo Podda.

In what could be considered an unexpected positive result, the January CPI data that was released yesterday showed headline inflation coming in at 2.9%, down from the 3.4% that was posted the previous month.  A lot of economists and market analysts had predicted the figure would come in at around 3.3% so this was a healthy 'beat'.  A lot of people may not know that this 2.9% print for January marks the second lowest monthly inflation figure that we've seen since April 2021 (only the 2.8% handle that was posted for May 2023 was lower during that timeframe).  Remember, the Bank of Canada has said they do not expect inflation to reach the 2.5% area until the middle of this year and they believe their final target of 2.0% will not be reached until sometime in 2025.  However, if Canadian inflation can reach these targets before the Bank of Canada's expected timeframes, that should clear the way for bond market activity that would see the yields slide, causing the Big Six banks and other mortgage lenders to react with lower fixed rates.

 

This is in line with our previous newsletters, where we outlined the case that fixed rates will come down well before Tiff Macklem and the Bank of Canada begin their rate-cutting cycle.

 


The second of eight scheduled Bank of Canada Interest Rate meetings for this year will be held on Wednesday, March 6th, and we are going on record with a prediction that the Bank of Canada will HOLD interest rates again, marking the fifth consecutive meeting that they will have held, and the seventh in the last nine meetings.  Afterward, the Bank of Canada's remarks will likely prove to have important pieces of information that Canadians can look deeper into.  We expect that Tiff Macklem will address the recent surprise inflation print of 2.9%, and we are extremely curious if this is the meeting where he begins to change his 'hawkish' tone to a more 'dovish' tone.  Will Tiff wait until headline inflation breaks under the 2.8% low from May 2023?  Or will he change his stance sooner?  At the seven last meetings where Tiff Macklem has held interest rates, he has asserted that his finger was still on the “proverbial trigger” and would be willing to keep raising interest rates if higher inflation persisted.  With inflation now sporting a '2' in front of it, will he relent and remove his finger from the trigger?

 

We continue to believe that the Bank of Canada's first interest rate cut will happen at either the June, July, or September meetings this year, and the sooner that the Bank of Canada's language turns 'dovish', the sooner those interest rate cuts will come.

Back by popular demand, we have arranged to host 5 different webinars in 2024, covering a wide range of topics between them.  Some of these webinars, like the one for 'First-Time Buyers' may not be beneficial for you since you may have purchased a home already, but - if you have a family member, friend, or colleague that you think could gain knowledge from attending, please forward them this information.  The webinars will be open to everyone, with you (our clients) receiving priority access.

 

See below for the full schedule breakdown:

   
   

To register for any of these webinars please click the button below. You can register for as many of them as you would like.  We will also be sending out reminders about the webinars as we get closer to each of the dates.

   
   
   

Our very own Vice-President, Daniel Patton, along with Operations Manager, Lorenzo Podda, had the pleasure of visiting the awesome crew at Rock Star Real Estate, and had a fantastic time going over a ton of interest rate information and presenting some of the new mortgage programs that are out there for real estate investors.  Keep an eye out for Daniel and Lorenzo to be featured on an upcoming 'Your Life, Your Terms' podcast hosted by Rock Star Real Estate owners, Tom, and Nick Karadza.

   

Senior Mortgage Agent, Michael Zanzini, was a coveted guest speaker at the Strategic Success Entrepreneur Event that was held in Oakville recently.  Michael was part of a star-studded guest speaker panel where he shared a ton of great mortgage information and stayed afterwards to answer questions that the attendees had.

   
   
     
   

Just a friendly reminder to come visit us on our socials, where we put out a ton of videos with tips and information to help you navigate the wild world of mortgages! Check out the links below and give us a follow!

   
   
   
     
   

As always, if you have any questions or want to do some mortgage planning, feel free to reach out to us at: