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Welcome to the Better Mortgage Select monthly newsletter – June 2025 edition.

 

Brought to you by Daniel Patton, Michael Zanzini, Lorenzo Podda, and our President, Dave Butler.

   
   

It’s been an interesting journey, to say the least, keeping up with interest rates in Canada since the Covid-19 pandemic.  We’ve kept you closely informed as interest rates began their long-awaited journey downward from the peak in 2023. We’ve seen fixed rates fall meaningfully, and the 5-year fixed rate even touched the high end of the 3.49%–3.99% range we had been projecting for almost two years.

 

There has, however, been a recent shift in some economic data and it’s important that we recalibrate expectations based on what we now know.

 

At BM Select, we still firmly believe interest rates will need to come down to support Canada's slowing economy. However, the timeline for those rate cuts has clearly shifted. The latest inflation and employment figures suggest that the Bank of Canada may be forced to delay any further rate reductions — possibly well into the late fall or even starting as late as the first half of 2026.

   

So, What's Changed?

   

  • Core inflation, the inflation metric the Bank of Canada focuses most heavily on, is still sitting around 3% — above their target of 2%.
  • While headline inflation has eased, core inflation remains stubborn, making rate cuts more challenging both politically and economically. The Bank of Canada prioritizes core inflation since it excludes volatile elements like energy, providing a clearer sense of underlying pressures. For instance, gas prices are down year-over-year—mainly due to carbon tax cuts—but that doesn’t reflect broader cost increases in essentials like food, shelter, and services. Core inflation gives a truer picture of persistent inflation.
  • At the same time, unemployment is rising, and GDP growth is stalling — putting the Bank in a tough spot: the economy clearly needs stimulus, but inflation data won’t yet allow it.

   

So, while the desire to cut rates is very likely there — the ability to do so simply isn’t, as of yet.

   

Our Updated Outlook...

   

If the current path continues, we now believe that the Bank of Canada will continue to pause rate cuts until at least the fall, and even then, a cut in September or October would require a string of much softer inflation data. Realistically, we may not see the Bank of Canada move again until the end of 2025 or even 2026.

 

When they do begin lowering rates again, it is our opinion that there will be at least two or three more cuts of 0.25% to come — bringing variable rates back into the mid 3% range, and the 5-year fixed rate sitting firmly in the 3.49%–3.99% zone, that we have been very vocal about. 

 

But for now? The word is patience.

   
   

What Should You Do Today?

   

In a market like this, blanket advice doesn’t cut it — your mortgage strategy needs to be tailored to your unique situation. Here’s how we’re thinking about it, based on different client types:

   

1. If your mortgage is coming up for renewal: 


You’ve got a tough decision — no way around it. Do you:

 

  • Lock into a 5-year fixed term at a rate around 4.5%, giving you peace of mind and stability for the next half decade?
    OR
  • Opt for a variable rate, knowing the likelihood of rate hikes is very slim and that variable rates could start to look smart once cuts eventually start again?

 

Many clients are choosing the variable route today as a form of bridge strategy — riding it out short-term and then locking into (converting to) a better fixed rate down the line. But this approach isn’t for everyone. The key is understanding your tolerance for rate fluctuations — and your cash flow comfort zone.

 

2. If you're looking to buy a home:


Even though rate hikes aren’t on the table right now, uncertainty in global markets can still push Canadian bond yields higher, and that means fixed rates can rise without any change from the Bank of Canada.

 

That’s why we’re advising most buyers to get a 120-day fixed rate hold in place. It’s a no-brainer move that protects you if rates rise while you shop, and if rates drop — you can still benefit. It's just smart risk management in today's market.

 

3. If you're currently on a variable rate:

We know many of you were holding out for a 5-year fixed under 4%, and some lenders came close — but didn’t quite hit the mark before yields bounced back up.

 

Now, the question is:


Do you lock in at today’s slightly higher fixed rates?


Or stick with your variable strategy and wait for the next wave of Bank of Canada rate cuts?

 

This decision should come down to your long-term goals, how comfortable you are with some short-term movement in rates, and what kind of flexibility you need built into your plan.

   

No matter where you’re at in your mortgage journey, these are decisions worth making carefully — and with the right advice.

 

At BM Select, we’re here to help you analyze your options, make sense of the market noise, and build a plan that puts your finances first. We’d love to help.

 

Reach out anytime. Let’s figure out the right move together.


We're just an email away: info@bmselect.ca

   
   
   

We are quickly approaching the $1,500,000 mark in terms of ACTUAL MONEY saved for our clients. Since our March 6th Rate Comparison email (read here), we’ve helped 173 clients break out of their high-interest 3-year terms and secure lower-rate 5-year fixed or variable options.


  • Average amount saved per client: $8,603
  • Total combined savings for our clients: $1,488,319.10
  • This includes prepayment penalties to the existing lender—there are no gimmicks, no tricks, just pure savings.

   

Watch the math for yourself:

   
   

If you signed a 3-year fixed-rate mortgage in 2023 or early 2024, please email us: info@bmselect.ca to see how much we may be able to save for you.  Don’t let the banks keep taking money that is yours!


*As a bonus to all this money being saved, the client whose mortgage approval pushes our ‘Savings Counter’ over the $2,000,000 mark will also receive a $500 Amazon gift card*

   
   

Daniel and Lorenzo had a great time connecting with our partners at Rockstar Real Estate at their team meeting.  They were there to introduce our brand-new Investor Edge Program (launching within weeks), which offers tailored mortgage solutions designed specifically for real estate investors. It was exciting to share how this new program gives investors more flexibility, smarter financing options, and strategies to scale faster. 

   
   
     
   

Daniel Patton had the opportunity to join the Michael St. Jean Realty team meeting for a great discussion on where the real estate market is heading. He shared insights on current and projected interest rate trends, and how these shifts may impact buying power, investor strategy, and market activity in the months ahead. It was a valuable conversation with a sharp and engaged team—thanks to Michael and everyone at MSJ Realty for having Daniel out!

   
   
   
     
   

Michael Zanzini visited Our Neighbourhood Realty, where he led an insightful and timely market update during the team’s monthly meeting. As the summer real estate market gains momentum, Michael addressed pressing questions and provided up-to-date insights to help agents navigate the rapidly evolving lending environment. His expertise empowered the team to better guide their clients with confidence and clarity.

   
   
     
   

Daniel Patton was a guest speaker on a panel at an evening event hosted by Gary Hibbert and the Smart Home Choice team. The night brought together real estate investors and professionals for great conversations and networking. With food and drinks provided, the atmosphere was fun and engaging. Daniel shared insights alongside fellow panelists, and everyone had a fantastic time. Big thanks to Gary and the team for the opportunity!

   
   
     
   

Michael joined forces with Smart Home Choice for an exclusive educational property tour across Toronto. The tour offered a firsthand look at active sites where single-family homes are being converted into fourplexes—some even including additional garden suites. These projects are transforming traditional properties into high-yield, multi-unit investments.

   
   
     
   

During the tour, Michael shared advanced financing strategies available to clients undertaking these types of conversions. Attendees were excited to learn that these projects, once seen as complex and out of reach, are now highly accessible—thanks to our exclusive lending programs we offer in partnership with our network of lenders. These financing solutions are specifically designed to support multi-unit developments, unlocking opportunities for stronger cash flow and accelerated property appreciation.

   
   
   
     
   

Just a friendly reminder to come visit us on our socials, where we put out a ton of videos with tips and information to help you navigate the wild world of mortgages! Check out the links below and give us a follow!

   
   
   
     
   

As always, if you have any questions or want to do some mortgage planning, feel free to reach out to us at: info@bmselect.ca