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Welcome to the Better Mortgage Select monthly newsletter – December 2025 edition. Brought to you by Daniel Patton, Michael Zanzini, Lorenzo Podda, and our President, Dave Butler.
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As we close out 2025, one word best describes where we now sit in the Canadian mortgage and interest rate cycle: Stability. For the first time since the COVID era began in 2020, we’ve moved out of an environment defined by sharp rate swings, policy whiplash, and constant reaction — and into one where interest rates, inflation, and economic expectations are finally beginning to normalize. Fixed mortgage rates today are modestly lower than they were a year ago. Variable rates are meaningfully lower than they were at this time last year. And looking ahead, there is no credible forecast suggesting a Bank of Canada rate increase over the next 6–9 months. That matters — because stability is what allows homeowners, buyers, and investors to plan with confidence.
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Where We See Interest Rates Heading into 2026:
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Based on current economic data, central bank guidance, and market pricing, the consensus among major economists is that 2026 will be a low-volatility year for interest rates. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to make at most one or two modest adjustments in 2026 — if any at all. That implies: - No sharp upward pressure on variable rates
- Limited movement in fixed rates
- A tight interest rate range without dramatic swings
Barring an unexpected global shock or movement on the Canada-US trade war, we don’t see conditions in place for a sudden inflation spike, nor for aggressive rate cuts. Inflation appears to be slowly cooling, with headline inflation hovering near target and core measures finally under 3%. Any changes ahead are expected to be gradual and visible well in advance. In other words: no more surprises. And that’s good news.
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What This Means for Mortgage Strategy:
Stability doesn’t mean inaction — it means smart positioning. For years, we’ve been clear with clients that a 5-year fixed rate under 4% would represent a strong long-term landing spot in a post-pandemic world. That view hasn’t changed. If opportunities emerge in 2026 where 5-year fixed rates dip into the 3.79%-3.99% range for a conventional mortgage, that’s a level we believe should be taken seriously — locked in confidently — and held without second-guessing. Markets are still recalibrating after a once-in-a-generation disruption. Finding the “new normal” takes time, and we’re now much closer to it than we were even a year ago.
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Looking Back — and Moving Forward | |
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2025 was a meaningful year for many of our clients. - Some successfully locked into 3-year & 5-year fixed rates under 4%
- Variable-rate holders benefited from consistent downward adjustments
- And our real estate investor clients saw the launch of BM Select Investor Edge — giving them new tools to succeed in today’s more demanding investment landscape
To those who trusted us during the volatility: Thank you.
To those who stayed strategic when rates were uncomfortable: Well done.
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Your 2026 Game Plan Starts Now | |
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As we head into the new year, the playbook becomes simpler — but more important than ever: - Mortgage renewing in 2026? Reach out early. There’s no need to exit a low rate prematurely, but securing a rate hold gives you leverage, flexibility, and control.
- Planning to buy in 2026? Get pre-approved. With prices stabilizing and opportunities appearing, being financing-ready matters more than timing the market.
- Carrying high-interest debt from the past few years? This is a strong window to explore refinancing. We’re helping clients reduce monthly obligations by hundreds — sometimes over $1,000 per month — simply by restructuring.
As always, our role is to help you stay one step ahead, not reactive. If you’d like to start mapping out your 2026 strategy, simply reply to this email with “2026 Planning” and we’ll take it from there. We’re proud of what we’ve navigated together — and confident about what’s ahead.
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As we head into the first quarter of 2026, the Bank of Canada’s next moves will continue to be driven by three core data points: employment, inflation, and overall economic momentum. Here are the key dates we’ll be watching closely — and updating you on as they happen: Friday, January 9 - Employment Data Release:
This report will give us the first read of the labor market in 2026 and help set expectations around economic strength, wage pressure, and consumer stability.
Monday, January 19 - Inflation (CPI) Data Release:
Inflation remains the most important variable in the Bank of Canada’s decision-making. This report will be critical in confirming whether inflation continues to trend near target — or if any renewed pressure is emerging.
Wednesday, January 28 - Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement:
The first interest rate decision of 2026. While we expect the Bank of Canada to keep rates on hold, this meeting — and Governor Macklem’s commentary — will give us valuable insight into how policy makers are thinking about the months ahead.
As always, we’ll break down each of these events in real time and explain what they mean for mortgage rates, renewals, buyers, and investors — without the noise or guesswork. As always, if you have questions or just want to chat mortgages, reach out to us at info@bmselect.ca and our experts will be happy to help.
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This month our own Vice President, Daniel Patton was a guest speaker at Scott McGillivray’s December Keyspire VIP Event, sharing insights on investing in a complex market as we head toward 2026.
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Senior Mortgage Agent, Michael Zanzini, began his month as a guest on Jacob Sofer’s Metrosuite podcast, discussing the growing demand for prefabricated ADUs and garden suites while showcasing how our BM Select Investor Edge products have been filling the financing void left by the big banks.
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Daniel then found some time to join the Michael St. Jean team and volunteer with Food4Kids Hamilton, helping support local families and ensure children in the community have access to nutritious meals. Giving back locally is an important value shared by the team, and they were proud to support such a meaningful cause.
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Finally, Daniel and our Director or Operations, Lorenzo Podda, stopped by the RockStar Real Estate office to begin game planning for 2026 and to drop off some Christmas gifts for their team. It’s always great when we get to catch up with Tom & Nick Karadza and their highly productive team of realtors.
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Just a friendly reminder to come visit us on our socials, where we put out a ton of videos with tips and information to help you navigate the wild world of mortgages! Check out the links below and give us a follow! | |
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As always, if you have any questions or want to do some mortgage planning, feel free to reach out to us at: info@bmselect.ca | |
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